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	<title>Commodity Models</title>
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	<link>http://commoditymodels.com</link>
	<description>A blog on the mathematical modelling of energy and other commodities by Will Smith.</description>
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		<title>Commodity Models</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com</link>
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		<title>1 day Commodity Conference (free), London, 20 January 2012</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2012/01/06/1-day-commodity-conference-free-london-20-january-2012/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2012/01/06/1-day-commodity-conference-free-london-20-january-2012/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jan 2012 05:59:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My PhD supervisor Helyette Geman is organising a commodity conference in London on 20 January 2012.  Speakers include Alexander Eydeland, author of several commodity-related books and head of commodities at Morgan Stanley and Robert Doubble, head of Quant Analytics at BP. To register for a place, a programme of events, location infomation etc., see www.bbk.ac.uk/cfc/<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=307&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<title>Commodities on UK TV</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2011/06/07/commodities-on-uk-tv/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2011/06/07/commodities-on-uk-tv/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jun 2011 08:11:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=301</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There&#8217;s a number of TV programmes related to commodities which are regularly shown on UK TV. As usual, they can be downloaded on BBC iPlayer for a few weeks after each TV broadcast (if you are in the UK).  I find they tend to rotate, so if you&#8217;ve missed an episode, it will probably be [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=301&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<title>Commodity Prices and Data Sources</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/08/17/commodity-prices/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/08/17/commodity-prices/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 00:42:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve spent days or weeks looking for good online sources of commodity prices and related economic data. For large volumes of data, suggest a subscription to Thompson/Datastream or a Bloomberg Terminal.  Be prepared to pay $5000 or so per year per terminal. For Commodities Tick Data, I have used and recommend TickData.com.  You not only [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=269&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Bloomberg&#8217;s Commodity &#8220;Plunge&#8221; Misreporting</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/06/03/bloombergs-commodity-crash-misreporting/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/06/03/bloombergs-commodity-crash-misreporting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jun 2010 00:33:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=246</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Avid viewers and readers of Bloomberg, like myself, may have noticed a recent article &#8220;Commodities&#8217; Biggest Drop Since Lehman Is A Bear Signal&#8221;. They use a little-quoted index of commodities, the &#8220;Journal of Commerce Industrial Price Commodity Smoothed Price Index&#8221;, claim that it &#8220;reflects clearer signs of supply on demand because half the items it [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=246&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Bloomberg Misreporting of a Growth Index as a Price Index</media:title>
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		<title>Literature Review on Oil Depletion</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/05/03/literature-review-on-oil-depletion/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/05/03/literature-review-on-oil-depletion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 May 2010 22:25:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=239</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve spent some of the last few months studying oil depletion. It&#8217;s less about models and more about strategy, information and international politics. The Geologists are mainly pessimistic, predicting peak oil soon. The economists are more optimistic, maybe because they think you can throw money at any economic problem (i.e. by higher prices) and get [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=239&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/05/03/literature-review-on-oil-depletion/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Commodity Futures Curves Visualisation &#8211; &#8220;The Movie&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/18/commodity-futures-curves-visualisation-the-movie/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/18/commodity-futures-curves-visualisation-the-movie/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 17:38:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=205</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My current project needs a good visualisation of various commodity futures curves and their evolution over time. I&#8217;ve seen dozens of &#8216;Snapshots in time&#8217; pictures in various sources, but I knew there was a better way. Some coding in Matlab has enabled me to observe the futures curves evolving in time, rendered as a movie. [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=205&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/18/commodity-futures-curves-visualisation-the-movie/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>15</slash:comments>
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		<title>Recommended Paper &#8211; Commodities Futures Curves</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/15/recommended-paper-commodities-futures-curves/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/15/recommended-paper-commodities-futures-curves/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 01:23:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=159</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A paper (PDF) written back in 1991 by Jacques Gabillon is an excellent introduction to futures curves. He describes the general features of futures curves and specifically those in the oil market, such as the typical ways they change over time, the concepts of &#8216;backwardation&#8217; and &#8216;contango&#8217;, and the term structure of volatility. He compares [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=159&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/15/recommended-paper-commodities-futures-curves/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">2010_03_Gabillon_Paper</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Commodity Futures Curve Interpolation &#8211; Parallel Matlab</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/07/commodity-futures-curve-interpolation-parallel-matlab/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/07/commodity-futures-curve-interpolation-parallel-matlab/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Mar 2010 04:47:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Matlab 2010a has been recently released, and finally the student version has the Parallel Computing Toolbox available for purchase as an option. I&#8217;ve been waiting to play with this for several years. I document in the PDF below my initial experiments with the toolbox. Specifically, I look into a simple, parallelizable task, that of interpolating [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=153&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/03/07/commodity-futures-curve-interpolation-parallel-matlab/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Preview</media:title>
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		<title>Key Papers in Commodities Finance</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/25/key-papers-in-commodities-finance/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/25/key-papers-in-commodities-finance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 02:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=126</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have compiled a list of some of the most important and influential papers and models, as an introduction to commodities finance or for those involved in modelling commodities (oil, gas, electricity, metals and agricultural products). It is not exhaustive; it is intended as a guide to ‘where to get started’. Version 1.4 (PDF)<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=126&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/25/key-papers-in-commodities-finance/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Parameter Estimation : Mean Reverting Process</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/24/parameter-estimation-mean-reverting-process/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/24/parameter-estimation-mean-reverting-process/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:06:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=115</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve recently been calibrating some oil and gas models, which involved parameter estimation of the well-known Ornstein Uhlenbeck mean reverting process. I found that it&#8217;s very hard to accurately calibrate the mean-reverting-strength parameter of the model, so I looked into this in some more detail, including simulations and Matlab code to simulate and estimate the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=115&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Calibrating Ornstein Uhlenbeck</media:title>
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		<title>Presentation : Introduction to Commodities Modelling</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/11/presentation-introduction-to-commodities-modelling/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/11/presentation-introduction-to-commodities-modelling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:06:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=90</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I gave a presentation (PDF) earlier in the week to some past students of the Wilmott CQF course which I took myself back in 2008. The topic was &#8216;Introduction to Commodities Modelling&#8217;. The audience members were mainly finance professionals (both in London where I gave the talk, as well as various other financial centres where [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=90&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Recommended Paper &#8211; Oil and Gas Depletion</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/05/recommended-paper-oil-and-gas-depletion/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/05/recommended-paper-oil-and-gas-depletion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 15:34:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=81</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been reading a lot of material recently on resource depletion, and specifically on the oil and gas industries.  You&#8217;ve no doubt heard some people saying &#8220;we&#8217;re fast running out of oil&#8221;, others saying &#8220;we had 30 years oil left in 1970, and we still do today&#8221; and such seemingly contradictory statements. What&#8217;s the truth [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=81&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Recommended Paper &#8211; Introduction to the Oil Markets and Oil Prices</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/04/recommended-paper-introduction-to-the-oil-markets-and-oil-prices/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/04/recommended-paper-introduction-to-the-oil-markets-and-oil-prices/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2010 20:26:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=74</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve started a new section recommending some of the best papers I&#8217;ve read on commodities and energy. The first entry goes to this paper by Fabian Kesicki of the Energy Institute, UCL, University of London, entitled &#8216;The third oil price surge – What’s different this time?&#8216; In a well written 11 pages Fabian covers all the [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=74&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/02/04/recommended-paper-introduction-to-the-oil-markets-and-oil-prices/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Upcoming Presentation on Commodity Modelling, London</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/01/26/upcoming-presentation-on-commodity-modelling-london/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/01/26/upcoming-presentation-on-commodity-modelling-london/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 20:08:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=66</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I will be presenting a talk on commodities modelling to past alumni of the Wilmott Certificate in Quantitative Finance on 9th February 2010. The content will be at a level suitable for those unfamiliar with the commodity asset class. The topics will include: o) commodities as an asset class o) commodity contracts o) details of [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=66&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<title>Choosing a Dissertation Topic : Financial Engineering</title>
		<link>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/01/20/choosing-a-dissertation-topic-financial-engineering/</link>
		<comments>http://commoditymodels.com/2010/01/20/choosing-a-dissertation-topic-financial-engineering/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2010 17:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>commoditymodels</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://commoditymodels.com/?p=63</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My slides for the presentation to the Masters in Financial Engineering students at Birkbeck, University of London are here.<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=commoditymodels.com&amp;blog=10709194&amp;post=63&amp;subd=commoditymodels&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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