I’ve spent some of the last few months studying oil depletion. It’s less about models and more about strategy, information and international politics. The Geologists are mainly pessimistic, predicting peak oil soon. The economists are more optimistic, maybe because they think you can throw money at any economic problem (i.e. by higher prices) and get more oil. Ultimately though, once non-OPEC oil is gone (which must happen first, because OPEC hold much more reserves), OPEC hold all the cards and nobody can predict what they’ll do. Read my full PDF.
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Really interesting.